Dispatch from Washington: A Wild Month in Politics
by Annie Lange, Senior Director, Federal Affairs
This month, the whole nation has watched as several major developments in this year’s presidential election upended the political landscape and conventional campaign wisdom. The headlines are awash with extraordinary moments: an attempted assassination, a sitting president deciding against seeking a second term in the middle of his re-election campaign, the selection of a millennial as a vice-presidential candidate, and a presumed Black, South-Asian female presidential nominee. As we look ahead to the last 100 days of the election and limited remaining legislative days in Congress, many uncertainties loom.
All Eyes on Chicago
With the Democratic National Convention set for mid-August in Chicago, Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to secure their party’s nomination. She has garnered enough pledged delegates and has received endorsements from President Biden, former President Barack Obama, all Democratic state party chairs, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY-8), and Speaker Emeritus Nancy Pelosi (D-CA-11). While there is no historical precedent for what might unfold at the Convention, it is increasingly likely that Harris will be the Democratic nominee. The Democratic National Committee could theoretically hold a mini-primary to allow other candidates to enter, but no formal challengers have emerged, making this scenario unlikely.
Assuming the most probable outcome—Harris as the Democratic nominee—attention turns to her choice of running mate. Vice presidential selections are crucial for balancing the ticket. Currently, four names are being widely discussed: Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina and Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. Senator Kelly, a Navy veteran and former astronaut, has been a strong advocate for stricter gun control following the 2011 assassination attempt on his wife, Rep. Gabby Giffords. Governor Shapiro, formerly Pennsylvania’s attorney general, was elected governor in 2022. Both Arizona and Pennsylvania are pivotal swing states that Harris would need to win. Governor Cooper is not as widely known but would be influential in delivering North Carolina – a state familiar with beer. Finally, Governor Walz, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, would be able to sway blue midwestern voters.
Legislative Impacts Abound
Members of Congress will leave Washington to campaign in their home states and districts in August and October. With the excitement from the Republican National Convention and the support for Trump/Vance, coupled with the changes on the Democratic ticket, legislators are keen to return to their districts and rally their bases. Polling will play a critical role in guiding their strategies and understanding their standing with constituents. However, with fewer than 50 legislative days left—half of which occur after the election—the focus in Washington will shift to the lame-duck session. During these five weeks, post-election, Congress will have the opportunity to address pending issues they have left unaddressed as they prepare for the 119th Congress, such as the impending expiration of the Farm Bill, funding for the federal government for 2025, and any tax incentives that expire at the end of this year.
As the political dynamics continue to evolve, the Beer Institute will continue to keep its members informed as we navigate the uncertainties ahead. The BI is well positioned to work with either administration and with the new Congress, regardless of party control. Our team of bipartisan, bicameral lobbyists and consultants will have a keen eye trained on the Dietary Guidelines for Americans process, the Farm Bill debate along with the pending Agriculture Appropriations Act, and the impending tax changes ahead in 2025.
